Too Big to Succeed? Three China Scenarios to 2050

By Michael Lee

Expect increased nationalism, including the flexing of military muscle, from China between now and 2050. Although I predict a surge in nationalistic sentiment and policy-making, one cannot rule out the possibility that a great new peaceful Chinese civilisation could emerge towards the middle of the century which would benefit, rather than harm, humanity.

China should succeed in landing a man and a woman on the moon before 2030 and this will be seen as a milestone in its quest for technological parity with the West. But China is almost certain to engage in more extensive military action, and build-up of its defence capability, as it seeks to establish strategic domination of Southeast Asia and searches for future supply routes for a variety of resources it needs for its growing and rapidly urbanising population, from marine fisheries to energy.

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